WASEEM SHABBIR
The current changing scenario in Afghanistan owing to the growing violence and rapid territorial gains by Taliban has forced regional and international powers to play their decisive role in bringing warring factions especially the Talibans and Afghan Government on negotiating table in order to avoid further turbulence and massacre. Talibans are categorically claiming their control over 90 percent areas of Afghanistan and are assertive to capture Kabul eventually. Moreover, the intensive fightings are going on between Taliban And Afghan National Security Forces in exclusive areas such as Kunduz, Kandhar and Herat. Therefore, the rising bloodshed, Chaos and devastation seem not to be allayed so far. Although the US has serious differences with China and Russia on many issues, Washington is now keen to take Beijing and Moscow onboard on the current Afghan situation. Both Russia and China have criticized the US for “hasty and irresponsible withdrawal” and declared that Washington has failed to bring about peace in the war-ravaged country which can have catastrophic repercussions for them. Because, they view US absence from Afghan territory as a threat to their territorial integrity in case the vacuum is created & occupied by non-state actors including IS, TTP and Al-Qaida expanding their terrorist activities, urging militancy and emboldening other insurgent outfits to follow the suit. However, all regional states including Pakistan, China, Iran, Russia and CARs are gravely concerned and united about the impending economic political and security consequences of emerging turmoil in Afghanistan that can engulf these aforementioned states in case the civil war erupts there.Since Pakistan has been the main stakeholder in Afghan peace process, it has always emphasized and persuaded the warring parties to seek peace through negotiations not through military adventurism; because peace through belligerence can never be achieved as is proved by twenty years incessant US war which ended in smoke. In addition, it is Pakistan which convinced & made Taliban agree for Intra-Afghan talks held in Doha on 29 February 2020, when US vowed to evacuate Afghan soil by 11 September 2021. Pakistan also facilitated inter Afghan dialogues in order to secure long lasting peace there. Pakistan too had convened the leaderships from both sides: Talibans and Afghan Government various times with sole objective to win consensus between them for the prevalence of peace. For now, when the situation in Afghanistan is aggravating & military aggression by Taliban is not abating; the world powers Including Russia, China and US more formally known as “TROIKA” are going to hold their meeting on August, 11, 2021 in Doha, the capital of Qatar. Luckily, Pakistan has also been invited by Russia to take part in the meeting viewing it the major stakeholder due to its genuine endeavours in peace process against the backdrop of deteriorating Afghan plight. It is a great opportunity for Islamabad to diplomatically and politically play its part in highlighting India’s diabolic game against Pakistan using Afghanistan soil. A chance for Islamabad to have all her peace efforts acknowledged by US & Afgan Government alongside persuading both Taliban & Afghan Leaderships to pursue a political settlement based on dialogues not confrontation. Besides Pakistan, the membership of TROIKA has also been extended to Taliban and Afghan Government making it the “TROIKA PLUS”.Most importantly, India was not invited due to various reasons: Russia & China are closely acquainted with the nefarious designs of India in Afghanistan proving it a peace spoiler not seeker since it is reported to have been indulged in funding and sponsering terrorism particularly against Pakistanand China; It might create problems inviting two arch rival states: Pakistan and India to the meeting together leading to clash of interests thus disrupting and diverging all peace process; further, Russia is not having intimate ties with India these days due to latter’s bonhomie with US along with purchase of weapons of billion of dollars from it instead of choosing Russia for this deal. According to Russia’s presidential envoy to Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov, the primary goals of “TROIKA PLUS” is to achieve Afghan negotiated political settlement, an assured cease-fire, resume inclusive intra-Afghan dialogue, and form an interim coalition government with tasks to carry out constitutional reform and prepare for a general election in a short, preferably two-year, term. Meeting is also significantly aimed at finding out a collective and coordinated strategy to thwarting terrorist organizations driven out from Middle East, from gaining roots in Afghanistan. US- RUSSIA have coinciding views on this issue and they included Pakistan in the meeting viewing its leverage on Taliban as Pakistan can prompt them to never let Afghan soil be used by such internationally banded lethal terrorist factions. China has its own interests in the Afghanistan. It wants complete security for all the investment it has made there and has no intent to jump into this imbroglio militarily. Moreover; through TROIKA PLUS, China wants full cooperation from Talibans to crack down on the expansionism of ETIM “East Turkestan Islamic Movement” towards China’s Western region of Xinjiang. Russia’s stakes too are not clandestine that is to maintaining its political & hegemonic influence on Kabul and containing spillover effects of terrorism from reaching its mainland through heavy deployment of military troops and installation of other equipment in CARs “Central Asian Republics”. Pakistan too would be an equal beneficiary of this meeting regarding its deteriorating security situations on its western border due to the external violence and ferocity and refugees influx from there, if done successfully by reaching a strong consensus among all divergent groups residing in Afghanistan.At this critical juncture, such diplomatic and geopolitical efforts are indispensable to expedite peace process, find a permanent solution to this protracted issue, and never allowing Afghanistan to descend into a bloody civil war again which will have devastating implications for the whole region. The new US led Quad “Quadrilateral Security Dialogue” comprising of Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and “TROIKA PLUS” and Inter Afghan Peace Conferences in Doha are the best steps that can indubitably work wonder in accelerating resolution, reconciliation and peace process amongst various competing sides in Afghanistan.
