Majid Ali
In a sudden move, Saudi Arabia’s King Salman will step down next week and his son Muhammad Bin Salman willbe next Crone prince of kingdomof SaudiArabia. The 32 year old Muhammad bin Salman was the second in line to the throne after Muhammad bin Nayef, is the eldest son of king Salman from his third spouse He is also known as Mr.everything,Muhammad bin Salman was given a vast portfolio as a defence minister, chief of the House of Saud royal court, and chairman of the Council for Economic and Development Affairs, and also recently appointed as head of Anti-corruption committee, and most recently Bin Salman (Mr. everything) has expressed his desire to return KSA into a “country of moderate Islam”. Is current sensoria will lead towards modern Islamic state or may it will lead towards to Iran-Saudi war, looking this answer we analysis from historical perspective.
On January 2nd, 2016 Saudi Arabia executed a top Shia cleric, alleged for his role in anti-government protests. Iran, which is predominantly Shia, immediately condemned the killing, as did a number of human rights groups. Soonafter, Iranians the Saudi embassy in Tehran, leading Saudi Arabia cutting diplomatic ties with Iran. With extreme rhetoric flying back and forth, many worry that the wow countries may end up in an all-out war.so, what would happen if Saudi Arabia and Iran went to war? Well, for decades both countries have exemplified the Sunni-Shia divide in the Middle East. Since 2015, they have fought a proxy war in Yemen, with Saudi Arabia and the United States supporting the former Yemeni government, and Iran supporting the rebel faction.
In the event of an actual direct conflict, however, the landscape would be very different. Both countries are massive, and are only separated by a few miles of Persian Gulf. Iran covers roughly 600,000 square miles, while Saudi Arabia occupies about 800,000 square miles. They also have very high GDPs, with Iran ranking around 28th worldwide, and Saudi Arabia at number 19. However, Iran’s population of roughly 80 million people is more than two and a half times the size of Saudi Arabia’s population which is less than 30 million. So how does this translate to an actual conflict? Well, considering their geographic locations, the two countries are close enough for a massive land battle. In this regard, Iran potentially demolish Saudi Arabia, with more than 2.3 million available military members compared to roughly 250,000.
On the other hand, it isn’t necessarily manpower that wins wars, and the modern age, technology may be a more likely ally. While Iran spends about 6 billion dollars a year on defence, Saudi Arabia spends about 50 billion dollars more. That’s quite a lot of tanks, planes, boats and bombs. But realistically, this would not be a conflict in a vacuum, and any deficiencies that each country may have can be easily bolstered by the support of surrounding and geopolitically involved countries. Unfortunately for Iran, the Sunni- Shia divide would likely be a deciding factor for most Middle Eastern countries. A survey estimates that as many as 90% of all Muslims subscribe to the Sunni faith.In fact, the only countries with a Shia majority are Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Azerbaijan, and possibly Yemen. But in the days since the execution, Bahrain has cut ties with Iran, along with a majority of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes some of the most powerful countries in the Middle East. Iran has also long seen hostility with Israel and the United States, the latter of which is a direct ally of Saudi Arabia. In the end, despite a surplus of manpower, Iran’s geopolitical position in much weaker than Saudi Arabia’s, and without significant support, there is almost no chance of an Iranian victory. In my perspective Iran- Saudi would not move towards any kind of war, this all changes may lead Saudi Arabia into a “country of moderate Islam”.
