Muhammad Haris Khara
The looming wheat crisis of 2022 is casting a bleak future of Pakistan owing to a plethora of climatic devastations and anthropogenic interventions. Wheat is the staple food of Pakistan. According to FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization), Pakistan needs 28 million tons wheat to feed its 220 million population in this year. The average annual production of wheat in Pakistan is 26 million tons. Pakistan Market Monitor Report 2022 indicates a wheat production decline of 2.2 million. The phrase wheat crisis is not less than a shame for an agricultural country whose 40% labour is invested in farming. The major climatic factor which contributed for a decline in wheat production is early onset of the summer this year. It hadlead the wheat crop towards forced maturity. The crop could not complete its vegetative growth completely because of unpredictability high temperatures in February. Secondly, the paucity of rainfalls also added fuel to fire in terms of low yield. Thirdly, sowing time of wheat was also delayed due to unavailability of fertilizers at the start of Rabi season. The anthropogenic interventions include the Urea crisis at the start of sowing period. Farmers had faced a myriad challenges to sow their crop due to unavailability of certain fertilizers. Urea contain Nitrogen which plays a cardinal role for wheat plant growth and development. Due to its lack, Pakistani soils were unable to provide enough nutrients to wheat crop for a better yield. That’s why, the national yield has been disturbed this year which is a alarming sign for government of Pakistan. Third and the most obvious part of discussion is the unregulated government subsides to farmers for the production of oilseed crops. Pakistani government has provided its farmers a subsidy of 15000/- pkr for cultivation of 12 acres of oilseeds crops under the umbrella of National Oilseed Enhancement Program. This subsidy, no doubt, has opened new avenues for the country in terms of diversification of crops. At the same time it has reduced the wheat cultivated area due to same sowing season and cost benefit analysis competition between wheat and oil seed crops like sesame and sunflower etc. This paradigm shift in cropping pattern has contributed a decline of 2.8% less acreage for wheat crop. Talking about wheat crisis of 2020, hoarding and smuggling had also added insult to injury in wheat crisis. Unclear data was also major factor in that crisis. Government had set a target of 25 million tons wheat for that year. Agriculture sector of the country had produced 26 million tons and there was also one million ton in buffer stock. Thus we have total 27 million tons with 2 million tons more wheat than our annual wheat consumption requirement. Due to unclear data, government started its import to other countries leaving behind the country in crisis without noticing the existing hoarding and smuggling through porous borders of Afghanistan. But in that wheat crisis government successfully managed it by importing wheat from Ukraine and Russia. Currently , both countries are at war which eventually closes all the doors for wheat import in case of wheat dearth in Pakistan. We are also in a condition not to plead for wheat from other countries due to crippling economy of Pakistan. Moreover, climate change has impacted all the world leaving no chances for better yield. Most of them are struggling to meet the basic needs of daily food consumption. Pakistan, a potentially rich country in agricultural production, can chalk out certain strategies to nosedive this forthcoming shortfall. For an instance, we are over-dependent on wheat crop for our staple food. We have not established any alternative of wheat in case of crisis. On the other hand China, the largest population, has tabled a lot of ways to supplement her people with adequate staple food. The staple food of the Chinese is rice but they have also developed a habit of incorporating maize and sweet potatoes in their meals. This avoidance of over dependence on rice as a staple food make them safe from any food crisis. The diversity in food consumption not only saves them from crisis but also ensures a better health due to a bunch of minerals and vitamins in maize and sweet potatoes. Pakistan should also focus on other food options like barley, rice, maize, and sweet potatoes for daily consumption coupled with strong actions against hoarders and smugglers in order to keep the wolf at bay.
