America’s New President  onald Trump takes oath as the 45th President of the United States in Oval Office. Donald Trump took over as US president in the same way he conducted his upstart campaign, with a mixture of blustery salesmanship and contempt for the established political order. In doing so, he sent a clear signal to the country and the world: He plans to govern as he campaigned, refusing to align himself even with his own Republican Party and taking his message directly to the American people. He did nothing to dispel concerns that he would bring the cult of personality he built over the election campaign into the White House, and he offered little in the way of olive branches to the tens of millions of Americans who did not vote for him in the most divisive election in modern US history.The gloomy picture Trump sketched of the nation flies in the face of evidence that the economy is in healthy shape, crime is down and the nation is relatively safe and secure.After warning the public on the extent of the problems, Trump suggested, as he did during his campaign, that he and his “movement†are the only solution. He did not mention the Republicans in Congress with whom he will partner to govern and certainly not the Democrats who have fiercely opposed him.His inauguration speech was a lot more president-like than his campaign was president-hopeful-type. But that much was to be expected, even though he did not move beyond the constituency that got him to the presidency, only chose more appropriate words. And, of course, heads of state, financial giants, capital markets – who have held their breaths since Nov9 for this moment of truth – now wait for the verdict. The first signal, as always, comes from the market. And Trump must have noticed now treasures and gold climbed as most investors dumped pre-inauguration trades and sought safe havens.More tellingly, the dollar dropped. Pundits are already wondering if the rally triggered by Trump’s pro-growth posture has run into early headwinds. The “Buy American, hire American†up front implied that the sobriety expected of the reality check hadn’t really affected the conservatism that may well lead to trade and currency wars. That, if anything at all, is not pro-growth. And Trump, no stranger to the cold calculus of the market, understands that better than most of his eminent predecessors. One the other hand, the Mexican peso suddenly rose, contrary to its record fall through the floor after the election, which shows that the immediate scramble could well be just a lot of confusion, though confusion is something the zero sum reality of market charts rarely factors in. For Pakistan the implications are different, though in large part they too concern money. The Republicans bulldozed the F16 deal, froze CSF payments, even humiliated Pakistan in the House. But Trump is Republican only in ticket. So only a wild guess can call the immediate future with any semblance of accuracy. Then there’s the security situation and the Afghan endgame to consider, not to mention the future of the Pivot to Asia.
