Shama Hameed
Historically, Kashmir has been at the heart of the Indo-Pakistan conflict.In February 2019, India and Pakistan again came to blows over their long-standing contest for Kashmir – a struggle that has already sparked four wars between 1947 and 1999. The latest showdown was prompted by the single deadliest attack on Indian security forces in Kashmir, where 40 members of the CRPF were killed in socide bombing in Pulwama. On 15 February, JeM, a Pakistan based terrorist organization, claims the attack and releases a video identifying the suicide bomber. Pakistan had rejected Indian allegations because these were made within a short time from the attack and without carrying out any investigations. In response to the Pulwama attack, on February 26, the Indian Air Force (IAF) launched an attack at Balakot claiming that they targeted a JeM terrorist camp. This was the first time since the 1971 War that Indian aircraft had carried out an airstrike on Pakistani soil.The next day, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) launched a retaliatory strike in the Rajouri sector of Jammu. In the ensuing aerial battle,India claimed to have shot down a Pakistani F-16 fighter aircraft while losing a MIG-21 whose pilot was captured after he was forced to eject over Pakistani-held territory. The escalation during the Pulwama/ Balakot crisis was unprecedented, as two nuclear-armed states moved up the escalation ladder to a point of a conventional aerial dogfight. Unlike previous crises, where U.S. involvement was more direct and visible in urging restraint, Washington’s reported acquiescence to India’s aggressive posture after the Pulwama attack indicated that that the role of the United States as a reliable and neutral third party was shifting. The Deployment of India’s nuclear-capable submarine during the standoff and later PM Modi’s signaling of India’s threat to carry out a missile attack against Pakistan – and Pakistan’s threat to respond if such an act was taken – further exposed both the eroding effectiveness of the U.S. as a safety valve between the two nuclear rivals and the high risks of greater escalation during the Pulwama/Balakot crisis.In the aftermath of the Balakot airstrikes, Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval’s claim that the United States had recognized India’s right to self-defense following his phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo suggested theU.S. had sided with India – thereby departing from its position as a “neutral” mediator. The U.S. role in the Pulwama/Balakot episode raises concerns for future crisis dynamics and crisis management efforts. Although the crisis eventually de-escalated, this seemed to bemore the work of a fortunate off-ramp with Pakistan’s return of the captured pilot rather thansustained U.S. engagement.Both India and Pakistan claimed victory in the aftermath of thePulwama/Balakot crisis, suggesting each side may take dangerously different lessons from theincident.
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