Taliban regime: regional challenges

Naseebullah Achakzai
Have the Taliban changed? Will their policies be different than that of their first tenure? Could Afghanistan be again the epicenter of radicalism, terrorism, extremism, violence, and insecurity? Would peace and stability prevail in the country which could further make Afghanistan the hub of regional trade and connectivity? Could Afghanistan again become a safe haven and sanctuary to terrorist groups? What implications the region can face during the Taliban’s new rule? All these questions, expectations, and trepidations have increased after the US withdrawal of __and with the emergence of the Taliban in the power corridor. Different regional players have different interests, stakes, and fears in Afghanistan. Despite India (whose policies in Afghanistan are Pakistan-centric), the rest of the immediate neighbours of Afghanistan have one fear common__that is the security threat from different terrorist groups operating from Afghanistan. Iran is the immediate neighbor of Afghanistan by sharing a 574 km border. It has always been against the US presence in its neighbourhood and has been critical to the presence of ISIS and Al Qaida there. More, Iran has reservations for the Shia community in Afghanistan too, where the Pashtun-centric Taliban had not been on good terms with non-Pashtoons specifically Shias. As the Taliban has announced its cabinet of 33 members without the inclusion of the Shia community- this could repeat the history of tense relations between Iran and the Taliban. The former President of Iran Mr. Ahmadi Nijad in a recent interview has also voiced that the new Taliban regime is a plot against Iran. Although Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have closed borders with Afghanistan so that to stop the flow of refugees, drugs, and arms-but the fear of security threat persists. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan which has a stronghold in North Afghanistan might revive during the new government. On the other side, Tajikistan is the only country that has shown reservations against the Taliban. A Tajik FTFs (foreign terrorists fighters) group Jamat Ansarullah that has a huge presence in the Afghanistan border near Badakhshan, could be a serious threat to Tajikistan as a matter of fact, the pro-Tajikistan segments have been out of Punjshire and surrounding areas. Apart from this, though Turkmenistan has been a neutral state, which aims is to secure economic interests, trade routes, and the completion of the TAPI-could be affected if Afghanistan falls into chaos, it will have far-reaching implications on it too. Russia and China are two mighty regional players and have been observing the situation in Afghanistan keenly. Both countries have again a common challenge of security from Afghanistan. Russia has been cautious of ISIS and Al-Qaida, Whereas, China has concerns over the presence of the East Turkistan Movement in Afghanistan. Security analysts Raid Standish and Ajmal Aand observe that “There are reports of many Uighurs secessionists taking shelter in Afghanistan. The US withdrawal would afford China to reach out to the future dispensation and secure assurance that the Uyghurs will not use Afghanistan’s territory.” The fears have been observed by US General Mark Miley during his interview with fox news. He said that “I think there is at least a very good probability of a borders civil war and that will then, in turn, lead to a reconstruction of al Qaida or growth to the ISIS or other myriad groups.” Notwithstanding, according to former Ambassador of Pakistan Mr. Asif Durians, that Russia has been accusing the US of resettling ISIS/Daesh from Iraq and Syria to Afghanistan. In that scenario, if these groups operate with full might, the region will face serious shocks of insecurity from the Taliban-led Afghanistan. Pakistan, which has been facing serious impacts of the Afghan quagmire since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, has again worried about the situation happening in Afghanistan. The most important challenge for Pakistan will be on the security front. The presence and revival of Daesh, Al-Qaida, and the TTP could deteriorate the security situation in Pakistan. The fears have further increased by the release of hundreds of TTP commanders and fighters from different prisons in Afghanistan. The UN sanctions monitoring report June 2021 fears that a significant part of Al-Qaida leadership is based along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border where Daesh remains active and dangerous. The same fears have been pointed out by Maliha Lodi who thinks that the TTP had become stronger after splinter groups had returned to the field. The resurgence of these outfits would be a gigantic challenge for Pakistan. Beyond security threats, the influx of refugees, border management, drug trafficking, armed culture, and transit trade challenges could encounter the region. During the past 20 years, many radical groups like Al Qaida, ISIS, the TTP, the East Turkistan Movement, Jamat Ansarullah, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, etc. have cemented their presence in Afghanistan. These all will have serious security threats for the region which could have far-reaching implications on the future. How the Taliban will deal with them and will the Taliban be able to encounter these groups and stop them operating against the regional countries from the Afghan soil? Uncertainty prevails. There is a dire need for a regional approach to formulating pragmatic strategies in encountering the rising security threat after the fall of Kabul to the Taliban.