By Dr. Abdul Razak Shaikh,
The general election is due on 25th July 2018 near to us. This time many political parties are to fight for the battle of Islamabad but no one to say that who will be winner? Who will the leader of House? Every one prediction about Pakistan Tahreek Insaf Chairman Imran khan due to favorative of many corners.
What happens if none of them can form the government alone? In a house of 342 members, the leader of House will be with 172 members or more. Will he form the Government from their own party of total members? Who will take such a number of seats PTI, PML–N, PPP, MMA or collectively other smaller groups? One of Independent group emerging with a Symbol of JEEP mostly from Punjab.
We may go like election of Senate Chairman, when PPP, PTI and Independent were on a same path. Independent member of Senate elected as a Chairman.
PML-N is not a near to establishment and very remote chances of getting slot of Prime minister. PPP is on a way to go with coalition to get few ministries. PTI is more near towards capturing the seat of House leader.
Now what is actual position of provinces, Punjab is power playing province than Sindh, KPK and Baluchistan.
The Punjab have a 141 seats ,than Sindh 61, KPK 39, Baluchistan 16, FATA 12 and Islamabad capital tertiary 3 seats. The women reserved seats are 60 and minorities 10.
The role of Punjab is in under pressure, where PML-N, PTI, PPP, MMA and Independent are on a way to go in Parliament. Eyes are in PML-N and PTI but we will not ignore the Independents having Symbol of JEEP. PML-N is fully prepared to play the part in the general election and they also remain many long periods in the power of province. Nawaz Sharif and his Daughter are in the Jail now and this part will also benefit to PML-N.
PTI has lot of heavy weight candidates after switching their affiliation from Nawaz league. Routinely slim numbers of Independent winners are from Punjab and this time ratio will increase.
Pakistan Peoples Party may give certain surprises in the Punjab also but it will be seen in a day of election result.
PPP have the edge than other parties in the province of Sindh and definitely will play role in the election of Leader of house. In Sindh Grand democratic alliance (GDA) also trying to capture the Sindh but difficult. MQM-Pakistan will be in a same position or loosing many seats this time. PTI, Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP), Muthada Mujilis Ammal (MMA) are also in the race and can not ignore them also.
Mr. Asif Ali Zardari President PPPP has indicated to be a part in the Coalition government. He also told that Bilawal Bhutto Zardari may be the next leader of opposition. KPK is suffering from terrorism during this election time and now it will be difficult for Political parties to go in public and convenes them for vote. PTI remains in a power five years but this time PPP has awarded ticket to many heavy weights; MMA has their own vote bank and PML-N also capturing many seats.
Baluchistan also suffered from terrorism and Bomb blast at Mastung has lost the lives near 150 people including candidate for provincial Assembly Mr. Siraj Raisani.
Baluchistan having 16 National assembly seats, MMA, PMAP (Achakzai group) and Baloch nationalist, PPP, PML-N and PTI taking parts to win the election.
This whole scenario predicts that this time no absolute majority to any party and Hung Parliament will be towards the Constitution Avenue.
Who will lead the parliament of 2018 election that will be decided after complete result of 25th July 2018 but favoritism goes to PTI. Who will be leader of House? He will be in the difficult part of country running. Smaller groups of House will be in Coalition Government to make an amalgamated parliament and one main party may play role of Opposition. Independent group may get a top slot as witness in Senate election.
