Ex Lord myer Mohamed Ajeeb
The fever ,uproar and commotion of elections in Pakistan is over now and new government is in motion. However, the country remains surrounded by many uncertainties including continued political instability and polarisation.
The hybrid system of government continues with more powerful influence and control of the establishment than ever before. The new government is a coalition of three old political parties who, in the past, have been worst enemies of each other.
This forced marriage of convenience is fraught uncertainty, challenges and unseen risks in the coming months and years. The PTI of Imran Khan which claims to be the largest party enjoying the overwhelming support of the electorate is facing the mighty wrath and is not expected to restore its confidence with the top hierarchy of the establishment at least for the next 2/3 years.
But, PTI , in opposition, will continue to attack and derail the new government setup and will remain a thorn in the back of Shehbaz Sharif as long as he remains in power. Asif Ali Zardari , being the cleverest and most shrewd politician amongst all others, has secured the honour of being elected to the position of President of the country without his party being the active partner of the Muslim Leage (N) government.
He is a far-sighted politician and has learnt the skills of working amicably with the establishment better than Sharif family. While, Nawaz Sharif declined the offer of his party to nominate him for the position of prime minister because of disappointing election results of his party and gradual deterioration in his personal health.
But it is the view also of many political observers that he was politely rejected by the establishment in view of his track record. Shehbaz Sharif, his younger brother is well known for being loyal and obedient to the establishment and is regarded a more tamed and safe choice than his elder brother. Nawaz Sharif’s political future looks uncertain and precarious. The Muslim League (N) as the political entity seems facing a serious threat of further divisions in its ranks and files and even the risk of it becoming defunct and irrelevant politically before the end of the current parliamentary term.
Asif Ali Zardari, while occupying the chair of Presidency for the next 5 years has already set his eyes and focus on his son Bilawal’s dream to become the next Prime Minister of Pakistan. On the other hand, the government of Shehbaz Sharif is going to have tough time at least for the next 3 years if it survives for this long. The formidable task of recovering the totally shattered economy that requires comprehensive shake up and revamping is not going to be an easy task. The inevitable spiralling of unaffordable prices of essential commodities, particularly of energy and imported goods, the increasing political and social tensions and growing polarisation and the perpetual escalation in terrorist activities both on western border and in Baluchistan, are the problems that will require urgent attention and firm actions to ameliorate the anxiety and fear of the people.
Most of these issues will have to be tackled within a timescale decided by the IMF. Therefore, there will be no alternative to escape or fob off IMF of this heavy burden of responsibilities. The formation and implementation of foreign policy has always been the prerogative of the establishment to have greater influence and say in the process. Maintaining a balance in the foreign relations would also be tricky for Shebaz, particularly, with neighbours of Pakistan and especially with the USA versus China. Pakistan’s policy of dependence on America is not supported and appreciated by the public due to the political awareness created in the last 3 years, particularly, among the middle class youth of the extremely ruthless and despicable role played by America in the Middle East and more recently in the Palestine. This has fuelled the temperament of the whole nation with anger and hate against America.
For this pent-up anger the government would have to provide some kind of outlets because the failure in this respect may cause further polarisation in the country. The pledge of strengthening legislation to empower local government, made with the MQM, may not be supported by the PPP for the reason of Party’s anxiety to loosen its grip on the largest City Karachi. This could become a source of serious friction and could lead to withdrawal of support by the PPP for the government thus increasing Shehbaz’s vulnerability to the continuation of his government. Additionally, Shehbaz Sharif, with not enough allies in KPK, will be under constant pressure from the Chief Minister, Ali Amin of Gandapure, who is well known for his bullying behaviour.
There are several visible and invisible issues of intriguing nature which will require the government to stealthily deal with them with care and diligence. The foremost issue is that of national economy. Grievously, all successive governments since the creation of country in 1947, have dismally failed to manage the economy. The economic status of the poor, peasants, small landholders and the labour class has remained static for many decades. The uncontrolled baby boom and youth unemployment is a huge challenge to the new administration. Crumbling health care and primary education are other two important areas to improve which need substantial part of the budget to be considered positively. However, the currently available funds available to the government, are even not enough to pay salaries of its employees but in spite the depleted government coffers, the new government is extravagantly, appointing a huge army of ministers and advisers with lots of unnecessary and unjustified perks. The judges and police Chiefs are being awarded incredibly fat salaries and facilities which were not available even to British administrators during British Raj of similar positions. Such decisions of the government are contemptuous of the constitutional leeway. This waste of national resources must stop with immediate effect.
Pakistan continues to be ruled by the feudal classes, wealthy families, industrial elites and army generals. When in power they are only concerned with serving and defending status and privileges their own kind. The system which has and continues to revolve around privileged families, megalomaniac industrialists and the army elites has never been open to any scrutiny and accountability thus it has become infested with debilitating bribery and corruption. The ruling classes have always regarded themselves above the laws of the land. For them ,the paybacks and evasion of taxes are norms and not exceptions. Consequently, the gap between the fabulously rich and the poor has massively widened rather than narrowed.
The powerless has become more powerless and the powerful have become absolutely more powerful. The deliberate and systematic denial of political power sharing with the middle and lower social classes has contributed to the more noticeable animosity between different classes, hence, bringing into play the unprecedented phenomenon of nationwide polarisation!
The successive governments have turned a blind eye to the extravagant excesses of the rich and privileged classes who live in excluded enclaves with their over the top lifestyles, going around in their expensive imported motor cars to impress their financial status with utmost pomposity .Interestingly, Pakistan does not indigenously produce these vehicles. They expensive and heavy on fuels vehicles are imported. In order to meet the demand, Pakistan imports fuel. All this has to be paid in foreign exchange in dollars which the country does not have. It is therefore not surprising that the inept leaders go around with a begging bowl to the western institutions thus compromising the country’s interests, dignity and standing. The fact remains that Pakistan as a nation has lived above its means with borrowed money and the rich and wealthy refused to pay due taxes with arrogance and contempt.
One also wonders about the wisdom of the so called political dons who are so keen to build motorways but refuse to give attention to improving and promoting public transport for the majority of population. Therefore, if the present government does not drastically impose moratorium on the revenue cost of running the government and the lavish spent on imports of all foreign goods to appease and please the rich and the wealthy, the country may not survive economically. Of course, life saving item which domestically can not be produced, like pharmaceutical products can continue to be imported even though many developing countries now are self sufficient in the production of generic medicines. Already , the delaying tactics used over the past many years , to defer the privatisation of PIA and Steel Mill has cost the country billions of dollars.
The main reason for indecisive action in this respect has been the fear of loss of political support of those who were employed in these industries by the then political parties in power. This is a living testimony of our politicians’ disloyalty to their country when their personal and political interests overcome nation’s overall interests. The present government is comprised of almost all old and tested individuals with suspected electoral wins. Their past performance has been disgracefully inept contributing to the country’s economic precipice. Hence, how it would be possible for this collection of inept, notorious and unpopular individuals to bring any miraculous results to revive the economy and regain the trust of people and, above all, to satisfy the establishment who will be watching their activities with great interest and dubiety?
The PTI in opposition seems hell bent to continue its unceasing pressure with all possible tactics including protests, demonstration with its militant style, both within and outside, the Parliament. The country which is already divided across the board may not be able to withstand and absorb the pressures of increasing cost of energy, fuel and daily necessities of life for too long and worsening situation may culminate in bringing further social unrest. One of the consequences of general public’s disenchantment with the appointed government, could be the chaotic end of it . Despondency , gloom, malaise, slump and stagnation is still lurking around the widths and lengths of the country.
In the absence of any viable and competent leadership. Political, economic and social frustration will grow and hence also instability and further chaos. Therefore, the current concocted and planted government may not be able to absorb expected and un- expected shocks due to its feeble and hatched up make up. Hence, there is no guarantee that it will survive its full term of 5 years. In the last analysis, the role of the disfranchised segments of the population together with angry youth may be decisive in shaping the future of the country with new directions which may ultimately lead the country to the era of democracy, peace and prosperity. BUT this will require leadership of high calibre and moral scruples along with exceptional political acumen and prudence with ability to devise clear strategy and planning and, above all, the unshakeable democratic mind-set to save the nation from slipping into the unknown territory .
