Naseebullah Khan
Will Pakistan as a state fail? It has been a burning debate for decades even from its inception when congress leaders had opined that Pakistan will merge back into united India. Recently, as the country is plunged into economic frail, the Baloch insurgency, the rise of the TTP, institutional decay, and many more crises, once again observers have been predicting about the future of the state.
Historically, a state collapses when a foreign invader inades and subjugates the state or it collapses when the lower class of the country rise against the state owing to economic misiries and brings revolution. In first case, though Pakistan has decades old rivalry with India and have mutually fought four wars. But, at present, a long scale war with India is impossible owing to changung dynamics such as the pressure of the international community and rise of India as economic power as India will never want to go into long war with Pakistan owing to its economic interests. Hence, collapse in this sense has no ground.
Secondly, states collapsed when the lower class rose agaisnt the state. When the state is heterogeneous, the ultimate result is bifurcation and if the state has been homogeneous reforms are done. In Pakistan, as the middle class supersedes tue lower class (though the middle class who has less means of living) has also been affected from the current wave of inflation but still break up is insuperable.
Moreover, The TTP has giving tough time. Pashtuns are disgruntled but are not in fevour of separation. The Baloch insurgents are echoing for freedom. Both the Baloch insurgents and the TTP will be a violent problem. But could not be in a position to get freedom or establish a separate state as no international power could come to support them. On the other side, Iran will also not allow such scenario in its neighborhood. Whilst, the mainstream Baloch political parties are also not in fevour of freedom and believe in struggle within the constitutional ambit of the country. Terrorism will be bleeding the state. But both could not be in a position to bifurcate Pakistan.
Ecnomic meltdown has been another cause of a state,s failure of which Pakistan is witnessing right now. It is the 13th balance of payment crisis of Pakistan since its inception. Pakistan has seen rise and falls in economic sphere. Whenever, its economy has been in the clinches of frails, friends nations have come to save it. For instance, in 1998, Saudi Arabia came to save the country from default. At current, China, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have provided help in crisis ridden situation. Moreover, owing to the heart of the OBOR, China has invested billions of dollars in the CPEC. Hence, China will never be in a position to let Pakistan alone in the time of need.
Another point that is con to Pakistan,s collapse is its geostrategic importance which has played pivotal role in world politics. Whenever Pakistan was in economic crunch the world came to secure it through bailout packages time and again. They are aware of the reality that dealing with one Pakistan is easy meanwhile, dealing with many states will be more difficult for the world. Hence, the international community will not let it disintegrate. Pakistan is in the clinches of provincialism, ethnic differences, weak governance, corruption, extremism, lack of rule of law, dearth of basic fundamental rights, and political instability which work as venom for state,s integration. The possible scenario could be as world community will increase pressure owing to our own weaknesses which have compelled us to look the world for aid and loans as beggers cannot be chosers. For me, in the presence of democratic evolution, robust media, political concious, growth of Information technology and communications, its strategic location, and rise of middle class, collapse in the shape of bifurcation is impossible.While, violance and chaos seem to be continued in near future. At the same time, the failure in the form of institutional decay, feeding people, healthcare, economic fragility, and lack of unity is before us.
What to do? Untill and unkess we set our home in order first, bring political stability, pay heed to institutional balance, say no to alienations, make parliament the custodian of the constitution, and end elite and Status quo centric policies, the country will be mired into crises.
