Syed Tahir Rashdi
Pakistan began receiving abnormally heavy rain in mid-June, and, by late August, drenching downpours were declared a national emergency. The southern part of the Indus River, which traverses the length of the country, became a vast lake. Villages have become islands, surrounded by putrid water that stretches to the horizon. Floodwaters could take months to recede. The country is currently experiencing one of the worst environmental disasters in the world. One-third of the country is under water. Over 1,325 people have died and 33 million have been impacted. The latest statistics show that over 1,600 have been injured, 325,000 homes destroyed, 735,000 livestock lost and 2 million acres of crops damaged — numbers which are likely to increase. According to a rough assessment by Atlantic Council’s Uzair Younus and economist Ammar Khan, the direct damage to roads, homes, livestock and crops is over $3 billion, which is an astronomical amount for a developing country like Pakistan.However, the study says climate crisis likely to have significantly increased rainfall and made future floods more likely.Pakistan faces some of the highest disaster risk levels in the world, ranked 18 out of 191 countries by the 2019 Inform Risk Index. This risk is driven particularly by the nation’s exposure to earthquakes and the risks of internal conflict. However, Pakistan also has high exposure to flooding, including, riverine, flash, and coastal, as well as some exposure to tropical cyclones and their associated hazards, and drought. Disaster risk in Pakistan is also driven by its social vulnerability. Pakistan’s vulnerability ranking (37 out of 191) is driven by its high rates of multidimensional poverty. Pakistan scores slightly better in terms of its coping capacity. The World Weather Attribution, a collection of mostly volunteer scientists from around the world who do real-time studies of extreme weather, released their report on Thursday. The study said global warming was not the biggest cause of the catastrophic floods, human-caused climate change likely contributed to the deadly floods. Climate change could have increased the most intense rainfall over a short period in the worst affected areas by about 50%. The floods were a one in 100-year event, but similar events are likely to become more frequent in future as global temperatures continue to rise, the scientists informed.The scientists were not able to quantify exactly how much more likely the flooding was made by the climate crisis, because of the high degree of natural variability in the monsoon in Pakistan. However, they said there was a 1% chance of such heavy rainfall happening each year, and an event such as this summer’s flooding would probably have been much less likely in a world without human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. The intense rainfall that has caused devastating floods across Pakistan was made worse by global heating, which has also made future floods more likely. So we should take measures to reduce human-induced greenhouse gas emissions to avoid further loss.
