Naseebullah Khan
A year and one-month resistance of Ukrainian soldiers and the bravery of the dwellers have bulldozed Russia,s whims of occupying the country. Russia has not only diplomatically isolated itself but is facing a huge economic meltdown and suffering gigantic casualties on the battlefield. At the same time, the UNO, America, European Union, and the world have come close and sympathized with the people of Ukraine
When Russia invaded Ukraine on February 2022, Vladimir Putin must have thought by miscalculating the abrupt response of the world, America, and the EU and might have assumed that the world would remain neutral as it remained a silent spectator in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine. This time, the Russian policymakers would be astonished that how America, the EU, and the rest of the world have responded well. For instance, militarily despite other military types of equipment, Poland provided Mig_29 fighter Jets, Lithuania provided 155_ mm ammunition and vehicles, Canada provided artillery shells, an air defense system, and battle tanks, Itlay provided 155 mm self-propelled guns, Germany provided shells mobiles, and an antenna system, the USA provided an Anti-drone jamming system, rockets, NASAMS missiles, tanks, Stinger anti-aircraft system, remote anti-armor mine system, grenade launcher system, etc. respectively to Ukraine. These developments have turned the hopes of Russian occupation of Ukraine into 180 angles.
On economic and military fronts, America, the EU, and the UK have been major suppliers of aid to war-torn Ukraine. Until 15 January 2023, America had provided 46.6 billion, the EU 51 billion Euro while the UK had provided around 1 billion USD economic and military aid.
At the same time, along with the courage and determination of the Ukrainian forces, the unity, of the people, motivation, courage, determination, and leadership of Zelensky, these weapons proved fatal and made Ukraine the graveyard of Russian soldiers within a year. On November 2022, the economist estimates 80000 Russian casualties. Russian casualties prove Russian military failure in Ukraine.
In addition, Bakhmut has become the longest place of war where both forces are fighting for 7 months. The BBC reports on March 7 that between 20000 to 30000 Russian casualties have taken place there. Forbes claims by quoting Ukrainian authorities that 1100 Russian Soldiers were killed in a single day. While Guardian reports on February 2023 that Russia has occupied 17 percent of Ukrainian territory yet. It includes
Lohamsk, Kherosan, Donetsk, and Zoporizhzhia regions too which were already under the defacto control of Russia. While on February 2023 the Guardian states that Russian forces have been pushed back from a 51000 sq miles area.
Economically, Russian is in a severe crisis where on one side the country is facing sanctions on the other side, the rejection of imports of Oil and Gas from Russia and the imposing price cap by the EU and America has brought the country on default. Bloomberg reported that Russia defaulted on foreign debt on June 2022, for the first time since 1928. Meanwhile, the military expenditure is providing fuel to the already defaulted economy.
The abrupt world response has alienated Russia diplomatically and is facing huge diplomatic failure. Major world powers have imposed sanctions on it. The UN general assembly called for Russia to end hostilities. On March 2022 the UN general assembly adopted a resolution of the Russian invasion that was illegitimate and called for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. That resolution was supported by 140 members, while 5 opposed and 35 were absentees respectively.
On the other side, the miscalculation of Russian think tanks has resulted in an upper hand of NATO over Russia as NATO and Russia both have been worried about each other’s expansionist designs. This invasion has brought many European nations and close neighbors of Russia close to NATO who have been now willing to join the organization. For instance, in 2020 Ukraine was given the status of a close ally of NATO. After the invasion, Ukraine has now applied for full membership in September 2022 and will be awarded the membership. More, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Georgia have also wished to Join NATO. At the same time, NATO has invited Finland and Sweden to join the alliance. This expansion of NATO will ultimately increase its influence in the region and will have a strong eye on Russia.
There are two possible scenarios and options. First: starting a dialogue process making two Minsk agreements the bases of the dialogue for which China has initiated steps and President Xi Jinping is going to meet Putin in a couple of days. If a peace agreement is done, Russia might be given a fave saving by declaring Russian dominated region of Donetsk a responsible and so Sovereign region. The second possible scenario which suits the US and the EU is to engage and trap Russian forces in Ukraine and provide further military and economic dent to Russia. This would be further disastrous for Ukrainian and the world,s economy.
Vladimir Putin called the ongoing war_ a war for Russian survival. To date, the ground realities testify that Putin,s expectations of annexing Ukraine have proved wrong. If sanity prevails in the ranks of the Putin administration it will solve the issue peacefully by withdrawing from Ukraine. Or else, the repetition of the Afghan-like episode that Russia faced in the 1980s will not be so for in Ukraine.