Naseebullah Khan
The Monster of Monsoon is wrecking havoc in Pakistan. While writing this piece, 50 million Pakistani have displaced, 1/3 of land is under water and 1300 people have died yet. On the other side, the infrastructure of the country has devestated. 40 plus reservoirs have breached, 220 bridges have collapsed and many dams have bursted. 1.5 million houses have collapsed. 40 thousand villages have affected, Livestock deaths have rosen to 0.9 million while 90 percent of all Agriculture crops have destroyed. Apart from this, the country will have to bear an economic loss of 15 to 20 billion USD. Consequently the GDP growth might slip by 1 percent.
As per a report of Government of Pakistan: Pakistan Meteorological Department, Pakistan’s Monthly Climate Summary July, 2022; above average rainfall, July 2022 happened to be an excessive-rain month with 177.5mm (area-weighted) rain against its normal of 63.1mm and stood as record wettest July since 1960. Why Pakistan has faced th highest rainfall and flood devastation as compared to the last three decades? Some of the reasons are wrotten as under; 1. Intense Heatwave. Meteorologists believe that warmer air has the capacity to hold moister the most. When it is extreme heat that results in rain above normal level in moonsoon season. The same has been happening with Pakistan. In April and May many cities temperature was more than 40 centigrade. The hottest place was Jecobabad where the temperature was 52 centigrade. Insomuch as in July Nokandi Balochistan witnessed temperature of 48 centigrade.
While writing this piece in 2022, Pakistan has witnessed the highest temperatures in the country,s history of last 60 years. 2. Glacial Melt. Owing to climatic changes the glaciers in the world have been melting in which Pakistan has no exception. Pakistan has over 7000 glaciers that have been melting down into floodwaters. The intense heat has also melted down the country,s glaciars in the Northen region. This meltdown further increases water flow into tributaries which eventually flows into the Indus River___ as a result, the extra flooded rush of water swepts away cities, towns, and agricultural lands by reaching the Indus that flows from South to North of the country. Jonathan Carrivick observes that our findings clearly show that Ice is now being lost from Himalayan glaciars at a rate that is at leat 10 times higher than the average rate of over past centuries. 3. Depression and La Nina Extreme heatwave brings depression __ a low air pressure in the Arabian sea that brings heavy rainfal in the coastal areas of the country. That air also resulted in early arrival of Moonsoon as early as June. That effect further resulted in that Pakistan has received heavy rainfall twice than its average while Balochistan and Sindh received five times higher.
Consequently, owing to lack of dams, and bursting of many existing dams and reservoirs the scale of current flood was has been staggering in Pakistan. La nina is Strong wind of warm waters that causes cooler waters to rise. Scientists believe that the disaster of flooding in Pakistan has been amplified owing to La ni_na weather pattern. 4. Global warming and climate change. The most pertinent reasons are global warming and climate change that have become a problematic. At current, Pakistan is 5th vulnerable country to climate change. Global warming has also intensifying downpours throughout the world in which Pakistan has no exception. Scientists believe that warmer weather contributes more rainfall. Since 1952, the temperature of Pakistan has increased 0.3 Centigrade per decade than the normal global average temperature. This increase has also contributed to immense rainfall and flood in Pakistan. 5. Miscellaneous factors Undoubtedly, rise in rainfall and floods are natural phenomena but human responsibilities cannot be set aside. Until and unless good governance lacks in the country, calamities will have been happening.
At current Pakistan is in the clinches of bad governance. The country is witnessing paucity of early flood warning system, poor disaster management system, pathetic urban development, dearth of drainage system and infrastructure issues. In Balochistan, one can guess the situation of governance from the bursting of dams where 24 dams have burted and 18 bridges have collapsed which were constructed a few years back. Cataclysmic floods have been engulfing everything that comes before it in Pakistan. It has destroyed agriculture, livestock, infrastructure and has killed over thirteen hundred people. The current spells of intense downpour have back washed huge flood across the country that has broken the record of past 30 years. Meteorologists believe that global warming and climate change, depression, intense heatwaves, glacial melting, bad governance followed by corruption, lack of flood warning system, debacle of disaster management system, infrastructural issues and paucity of urban development have been the major culprits for the sorry state of affais.
How to tackle floods devastation in future? There is an urgent need of a consensus based climate change policy in which much focus should be given upon allocation of ample budget spending which is equal to none at present. Apart from this, for overcoming the issue of lack of dams in the country, following the national water policy of 2018 with true spirit is a must. Last but not least is the a vigilant governing system where adopting new scientific methods and instruments so that to aware the people about flood warning system, cementing disaster management system, and hiring seasoned meteorologists for reserach and innovation are dire needs of the hour.