Shahbaz Sharif: Challanges Onward

Naseebullah Khan
The Supreme court of Pakistan has declared the ruling of Deputy Speaker of national assembly of Pakistan with respect to no trust motion against Imran Khan and the dissolution of assemblies by Imran Khan Void ab initio. The court also ordered to held meeting of National assembly for no trust motion against Imran Khan on April 9, 2022. The Combined opposition that has already showed its strength of 197 members out of 342 MNAs reflects that Imran Khan will be impeached. And Shahbaz Sharif will be the next Prime minister of the county. The bed of throns is welcoming him. His and his Coalition partners expertise will decide as to how they get the boat out of the whirlpool. He will be facing huge challanges such as: 1. Ecnomic Meltdown. The country is in the clinches of serious economic cataclysm. Trade deficit has reached to $45 billion along with Current account deficit is 20 billion. The FDI has shrinked to 2 Billion USD. Reserves have reached to a devastated point where the SBP has $12 billion reserves left comparing to India that has $600 billion and Bangladesh Bank that has $40 billion in reserves. On the other side, wholesale Price Index is up 23.8% which fears that we are heading into a full-blown balance-of-payment crisis. Moreover, high borrowing, Stagflation, and fulfilling IMF conditionalities have resulted in huge decline of the DGP growth (From 5.9 percent in 2017 to 1.9 percent. In addition, the current stock of circular debt hovers around Rs2.5 trillion ($14 billion). Apart from this, intrest rate is 12.25 percent, inflation is at 13 percent while the devaluation of Rupee continues where dollar is rushing up to 190. How Shahbaz Shareef and his economic team cope up with these challanges, will not be an easy task. 2. Election Reforms. Historically, elections held in Pakistan have always been controversial. Whosoever wins, the loser alleges of rigging. The last election held in 2018 created a huge gulfed among the PTI and opposition parties over the legality and fairness of the election. At present, the PTI led government has passed the use of Electronic Voting Machines EVMs in next election upon which opposition parties had serious reservations along with the Election Commission of Pakistan that had rejected the idea for the next election of 2023. Unanimous and acceptable elections reforms will be a big demur for Shahbaz Sharif as prime minister. 3. Foreign Policy. On foreign policy front, the previous government failed to succeed. Whether it was the issue of Kashmir, that was unconstitutionaly merged into India, or were the relations with Muslim world and the European union including America___ the PTI led government foreign policy was fatal. Pakistan remains in the FATF grey list. The recent tirade of Imran Khan against Europe and the conspiracy of lettergate by connecting it with the US damaged the country’s status. On the flip side, when the whole international community including the UNO was against the Russian agression of Ukraine Imran khan was visiting Russia. How to mend ties with the western community as well as America and Muslim world again, will be the real test for Shahbaz Sharif led government.4. China and the CPEC. The relations between Pakistan and its all weather firend China faced pit and fall during Imran regime. At the beginning in 2018, some of the ministers categorically criticized China on its investment terms and conditions in the CPEC which alarmed China. Consequently, the process on the continuation of the projects of the CPEC was delayed whose aftershocks, we have been witnessing at present too. The past experience of PPP and PML (N) justifies that both had been comfertable by working with the Chinese government in the CPEC initiative. The expectations are that the next government will again be successful by restarting and rebuilding of warm relations with China. 5. Expostultion in Opposition Itself. The current combined opposition is comprised of about nine parties excluding the independent MNAs. Satisfying every coalition partners will not be as easy as pie. The crises which the state has been facing, demand sanity from all coalition partners.6. Institutional Imbalance. At present, the country has been facing a gigantic challange of institutional imbalance. The PTI led government was in bad terms with many institutions such as the Election commission of Pakistan. Moreover, the Imran Khan,s hybrid regime has made Parliament dysfunctional. The NAB and FIA have showed poor performance in last three and half years through political victimization and vendetta. How Shahbaz sharif becomes a bridge between the institutions and give due status to the Parliament will be his litmus test.7. Surge in Terrorism. The insurgent forces have again started attacking. The incident of Panjgur and Nushku, blast in Lahore in January, suicide bombing in Peshawar, bombing in Quetta in March testify that terrorism has surged again. How the next government will counter the redux of terrorism and resurfacing of the TTP and ISIS would be a mighty rigor.8. Suffocated Media. The previous government had suffocated the freedom of media and dissent. It had not only barred credible journalists from appearing on TV talkshows but also imposed a black ordinance____ the PECA ordinance. Notwithstanding, the regime had also bannd airing political leaders on TV screens. How Shahbaz Sharif and his coalition partners ensure the freedom of Media as per their promisses__ will be interesting.9. Victimization. Undoubtedly, many leaders of PML,N and PPP were sent behind the bars as political victimization and vendetta through fake cases. Will the new government be in a position to let bygones by bygones? Or will its repeat carrying on the blunders of victimization that the PTI led government did? The challange is ahead.Pakistan is in the clinches of grave crises. From economic debacle to foreign policy challanges, from bad governance to rise in terrorism, from election reforms to the standstill position of the CPEC, and from institutional crisis to media stifling___ the new coalition will have to wrestle with many qualms. How Shahbaz Sharif grapples with these obstacles and puts the country on right track____ will not be Cherry pie.