Fresh wave of political change in offing , in IHK

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Justice Manzoor Gillani
Indian media speculates some change in the political structure of the Union territory of Jammu & Kashmir , be it the restoration of the state hood minus Ladakh as promised , with minimum autonomy like other nine other Indian states of India under Articles 371A to 371 k of constitution of India or restoring democratic government through election for which high level delimitation commission meetings are in offing (in which Farooq Abdullah significantly hinted to participate ) or it may be still worst to bifurcate the identifiable Muslim majority areas in small Union territories or please the ashmiri Pandits to create a separate abide fir them as PUNUN KASHMIR, as India is unpredictably stiff on Kashmir . However , India is running very short of options on Kashmir now and if there is any understanding with Pakistan on restoring normalcy by restoring statehood pre august 2019 position, it may not go to any other extreme . Except Sajad Lone , the first regional leader from Kupwara district , Farooq Abdullah of National conference carries the GUPKAR declaration partners along who demand statehood with pre 1953 Autonomy . Though Some of Mahbooba Mufti’s( PDP LEADER) lieutenants have formed their “APNI party “, with their allegiance to Narindera Modi Govt , while Sajid Lone , the first lieutenant of Narinder Modi- has parted ways, but all are in unison for restoration of state hood and robbed autonomy . Even the national parties , except BJP and its outfits , equally support statehood and restoration of its autonomy . Wether they would be able to achieve it before elections are held or jump into the fray with false assurances as usual , is yet to be seen . Resistance movement is suppressed under sever restrictions on movement, assembly, speech, processions , political activities and , on gun point , but could not be curbed and none of Kashmir based political parties be it congress CPI , utonomy seekers within India and their leaders could be so for lured or induced to accept status qua . Prime minister Pakistan Imran Khan is showing even undiplomatic flexibility on Kashmir that ‘ no normalization with India till pre 5th August 2019 position is restored ‘ ( although right to self determination is the issue , not this.) He has gone a long step back in an interview to Reuter to suggest that let India give a Road map for this . ( India needs to be understood in the back drop of its national policy .) While army chief a major and effective player in security apparatus in relation to policy towards India has managed cease fire on LOC , going on successfully and has admitted that back channel diplomacy on Kashmir is a going on process between security chiefs of India and Pakistan but our own house has to be set in order . ( as MNS was accused of “ DAWN LEAGUE “ , having said Apneen Munji tulla Dang marna.) It seems division of business between political institutions of Pakistan. Whatever the position , India is a tricky negotiator especially with Pakistan on Kashmir . India wins in every relaxation by Pakistan and Pakistan loses . India is lead in policy and talks by politically and democratically groomed civil and political bureaucracy not by establishment alone . They do matter , but as stake holder advisors . Pakistan struck the balance only under political leadership of Bhutoo in 1971 through Simla agreement and MNS twice when Atal Bihari Bhajpai Bowed on Meenar -i- Pakistan and Narinder Modi on his house . None other has ever brought dividends be it in Tashkent , Agra , Delhi or four point formula.. It requires political skill and independent grooming of policy makers and negotiators , not with servitude ranking . Deal with India is desirable and inevitable but with political consensus and establishment backing . First inculcate confidence in nation, develop political vision and then go ahead . It would guarantee its success . Mistrust in political institutions is the general impression and it is a political and ground reality . Independent minds with world view , grasp upon historicaland geographical events of world , particularly in relation to Pakistan – India and Kashmir history , not under any influence or hope of favour from seniors and superiors can deliver better . Government May follow the legal course on accountability gracefully and in accordance with law and fair play but accept the essence of political forces in resolution of issues confronting Pakistan . India is always high jacking the flight because of political disorder and economic weakness of Pakistan which leads to diplomatic crash of its image . PM was not right to curse the diplomats failure in his speech to them without admitting the credibility and image crisis of overnments/ state of Pakistan . Similarly his utterance that Pakistan can progress without trade or normalisation with India is equally devoid of merit because our defence budget leaks tremendously on our defence against India and Indian led Afghans . India will still not desist from its hegemonic designs but there will be no cause if irritants , toughest of which is Kashmir, is resolved . Similarly our politicians and agencies will have no reason to play Kashmir and Indian card to malign their opponents and pollute the political atmosphere leading to economic decay, consequently Diplomatic image at large. India – Pakistan seem converging some how. If prime minister Imran khan’s statements on Narindera Modi and his wish to see him elected in relation to Kashmir before his election and, after onslaught on Kashmir in august 2019 to declare that no normalisation with India without restoring status-qua ante and , COAS’s open statement to bring our own house in order and normalise with neighbours in behind the curtain conversation with leading journalists followed by successful cease fire on loc at military operation level support the impression of convergence . I see a unison understanding on Kashmir . If all this is with a tacit understanding, Pakistan must place all issues with India in one basket for composite deal which emanate from Kashmir alone , except Sir-creek . LOC violations, Siachen occupation , water disputes and future dispensation of state itself on both sides . The later has to be with consensus of local leadership of Kashmiris with spirit of permanent pacific settlement whatever the mode , referendum, negotiation , arbitration etc . These are alternate to plebiscite , proposed by UNCIP Decades ago which are overtaken by international tide of events . Kashmiris must also understand the ground realities of aspirations of all regions under Indian and Pakistani control and now China is the active player in Ladakh . Valley of Kashmir alone cannot liberate whole of J&K from three big powers at the cost of their life , liberty , honour , generations and that too when all other regions have diverse political and ideological approach on ground . Kashmiris have lead and are leading but without other takers, there is no state of J&K but KASHMIR valley alone . In my perception neither India nor Pakistan can concede even a single inch of territory to other from territories of state in their control . But they can bring peace and peaceful coexistence by acknowledging ground realities for settlement of dispute and free besieged people of valley and its adjacent areas of pirpanjal and chinab valley in a manner that they feel , they are free and matter. Similarly AJK & GB practically governed by Pakistan should feel that they are political reality and their rights matter . How long shall they be kept hostage to resolution of the dispute as a whole , without “ interim relief subject to final settlement.” ? Nations keep on drafting and redrafting the social contracts . Never be scared of that . The continuance of dispute is a good feed for politicians on both sides but fatal for two countries , world at large and people of Kashmir in particular .