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In 1979, right after the Islamic revolution, the U.S.-Iran relations moved towards darkness and proved to be conflictive . It was mainly due to Iran’s disputed nuclear program and making of Weapon of Mass Destruction by Iran. In 2015, both states joined hands to re-establish their relations under the Obama administration with relief on sanctions for Iran. It was a benchmark treaty which brought Iran to the table. Iran was finally agreed to transfer her nuclear equipment to Russia. After Trump’s joining the white house, the deal was marked as a blunder by Trump. He said that that previous government did nothing but blunders and useless things so he decided to withdraw from the deal. After pull out of U.S from the deal, the tensions between U.S and Iran have been increasing day by day. It is argued that chain of events have happened between both countries that could lead to war. United States has placed an aircraft carrier strike group and B-52 bombers to the region to send “a clear and unmistakable message” to the Iranian regime not to challenge the United States. Trump has also stated that whenever he needed would deploy troops to confront Iran if Iran threatens Americans interests and Iran would suffer greatly.
From his campaign till now he is focusing on domestic policies. During his campaign, he mentioned that foreign policy would not be a priority anymore and important part of the U.S. is its people. Trump has adopted “America First” policy as Trump is a follower of Nationalism and he is against globalization and believes that Nationalism will secure his people. All his policies are favouring his people and their rights. On the other hand, image of U.S is changed now because not only from nuclear deal (P5+1) Trump has cancelled several other pacts either economic or strategic.
Relations with Iran were on way to normalization but after Trump hard-line policies towards Iran, they got bitterer. They would affect both states U.S and Iran. U.S will lose its control over the Middle East region and its allies who are still favouring the deal (P4+Germany) and trust deficit between the U.S and its allies. U.S would not be able to take benefit from Iran as in term of Oil embargo. On the other hand, Iran will have more benefits than being in danger if other members decided to continue to go with the JACPOA permanently and ignoring U.S. So, by the continuation of the deal, sanctions would be lifted and there would be higher rate of Iranian oil export ultimately leads to higher economy of Iran.
Trump approach towards Iran, his impulsive behaviour, blunt and disrespect for policies and stick to only win-win situation can lead to war. If war started than it would be like the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, which led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and it would be costly for both U.S and Iran. If the U.S launched an attack against Iran it would also affect the whole Middle East region and would be disruptive economically because of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is giving border to it and if this route would block, one-third of the world’s oil-tanker traffic would be blocked as well. Moreover, if Iran completely leaves the nuclear deal than ultimately it would for the expansion of its nuclear programme and it would go for direct or proxy attacks on U.S. as it did by attacking a U.S drone in June 2019 and escalated the already volatile situation playing out between Washington and Tehran in the Middle East. “There are no permanent allies, no permanent friends, only permanent interests.” If we hold this notion we find that relation between Iran and the U.S. can be sorted out based on their energy interests and security of the region which is permanent for both of them