Democratic transition and prospects for PTI in GE-2018

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“Political Analysis and Prospects for PTI”

By Abdul Rahman Malik,
Elections in Pakistan have always been Marred by Turmoil, rigging, Horse trading, Nepotism,favouritism, manipulation and bartering of votes. The Voters are influenced and threatened to face dire
consequences if they did not vote and support any specific Party
Leader usually a traditional Feudal who even warns to forcibly displace or disappear any person if they or their favourite candidate was not voted. In the past several decades, Pakistan has never witnessed any free, fair and transparent elections. However, The Elections held in 1988 under Army are said to be the
fair ones as people believe that people were given free choice to
vote for their Favourite candidates. Luckily, PPP under Benazir with simple majority formed their Government.

Afterwards, PPP and PML-N had their turns one after another and maintained their duopoly until General Parvez Musharraf’s
Toppling of PML-N second Government when his Plane was
denied landing and Even The Army chief was changed in his absence
while he was on the official visit. The Army supported their General and helped him become the Marshal Law administrator and then President after Holding a Public Referendum.
Musharraf enjoyed the largest tenure as Martial Law Administrator
and then President of Pakistan After General Zial Haque who had enjoyed the largest tenure as both Martial
Law Administrator and Then President. Though ,later he declared
that he had not imposed any Martial law.
It is Irony that Pakistan has experienced mostly Military Coups
than Civilian Governments as a result we had Iskandar Mirza,
General Ayoob Khan, General Yahya, General Zial Haq, Zulfiquar Ali
Bhutto and Musharraf as CMLAs though General Musharraf Declared
that It was not Martial Law but when he imposed Emergency in the
country and kept the constitution in abeyance . The people called it Martial Law or Military Rule as the
constitution was suspended. His reforms especially for improving
and reforming Local Governance System and an introduction of New
Local Governance system in which Commissioner-ate System was
replaced with District Governments where the District Nazim was the
Most Powerful Administrator whereas a Grade 20 Officer worked
as District coordination officer to ensure coordination between the
Various Departments. Each Department was headed by a
grade 19/20 Officer as Executive District officer such as EDO (finance and Planning) EDO (education ) EDO
(Health), EDO (Revenue ) EDO (Agriculture ) and So. It was the first time that Finance Department was devolved at District Level which benefited the People since each
Departmental Budget was released from Account-IV of District instead of Account-I i.e. Provincial Government.
The District Nazim with help of EDO(F&P) prepared their own budget and approved the required schemes upon the recommendation
of the District Council members and thus over 80 % of the allocated
budget was utilized. Such Utilization changed the shape of Urban and Rural areas and Development was evident from the Massive
Development schemes and their Proper Implementation.

The Mayor Karachi, Naimutullah Khan did the best and changed the
whole scenario of Karachi and made a very Clean and Green City and
later the MQMs Mustafa Kamal became Mayor Karachi and targeted
the own areas for Development. Musharraf held a so called
referendum and got himself elected as President and then Held Elections in which his party PML Q came into power and formed the Government in Sindh, Center and Punjab. Then in
his era, Benazir Bhutto was assassinated and he was held
responsible for Benazir Killing. The Country experienced bloody Riots as the angry mobs set the Govt Buildings, Banks, Schools and Police Station on fire and there was Chaos
all-around since Musharraf had stopped the Security Personnel not
to resist or stop the Protesters who were protesting against the Brutal Killing of their Leader Benazir Bhutto.
At least Benazir Bhutto was successful to make Musharraf as a
civilian President when he was compelled through Political
Pressure to withdraw from Military Uniform.
PPP won 2008 Election owing to sympathy vote and Yousuf raza
Gillani Became the Prime Ministerb and then Musharraf was given Clear passage to leave the country and Zardari became the President of Pakistan and completed their Tenure of Five Years. Even Supreme
court disqualified Gillani over defiance to Write a letter to swiss
Government to Freeze the Bank accounts of Zardari by awarding
30 second Sentence . Thus , Raja Parvez Asharaf replaced him as PM
It was the first time that any Democratic Government had completed its tenure, As earlier, none was able to complete their
tenure since most of the civilian governments lasted for 2 to three
years hardly which were either dissolved by the presidents under
articles 58 2B or ousted by CMLAs.

Then in 2013, PML –N came to power and Formed their Government and Mian Mohammad Nawaz Sharif Became the only Person in the History who had become the PM third time in Pakistan . As PPP Government had brought 18th Amendment and made the way for the PM third time to hold the Office and given Provincial Autonomy .
The PML N- Government came under fire when PTI complained that
there was rigging in General Elections. Even the Speaker NA
Ayaz Sadique was disqualified and there was re-poll on his constituency but he re-won the seat and became the Speaker again. The Model town incident and Long March and Dharnas became the order of the Day and then the tremors of Panama Leaks shook the world hard and The Names of Mian Nawaz Sharif, His Sons Hassan and Hussain Nawaz and Her daughter came in corruption list of Panama Papers.
All the Parties Started protests and Democratic Transition And Prospects For PTI in GE-2018 demanded resignation from Nawaz
Sharif but his stubbornness cost him lot and he was disgraced publicly when he was disqualified on 20 th
April, 2017 by Supreme Court of Pakistan after the JIT findings in
Panama Papers Case. Nawaz’s Bad luck did not stop here,
He was sentenced on Friday, July 6, 2018, for Ten Years and His
Daughter Mariam Nawaz for 7 Years and His Son law Captain
Safdar for one Year in Aven Field Reference Filed by NAB under
Directions of Supreme court of Pakistan.
With Elections 2018 are just three days Away, All the Political Parties are busy in their Election campaigns.
Some of The Election rallies are targeted by Suicide Bombings in
Mastung and Among the dead were the Workers of Baluchistan Awami
Party) including the party’s provincial candidate, Siraj Raisani
whereas in Peshawar Suicide Attack ANP Leader for Provincial Seat
Haroon Ahmed Bilour was killed and other Party workers were also Killed in the Suicide Blast . The Political Pundits and Analysts
are of the View that the PTI enjoys a Strong position in KPK, Punjab and Sindh followed by Alliance of
Religious Parties (Muttahida Majlis e-Amal ) MMA has also strong
position in KPK, Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan. The Baluchistan is
Center for religious parties and has always Mix support for Nationalists such as Baluchistan Awami Party,
National Party of Pakistan, JUI, PPP and PML – N.
In Sindh, the Old Parties such as MQM has strong hold in Urban
Population of Karachi , Hyderabad ,Mirpur Khas whereas PPP has
Strength in Interior Sindh . They are facing strong Resistance from Grand Democratic Alliance headed by PML-
Functional Head Pir Pagara and other Nationals. Though MQM has
seat adjustment with GDA, yet MQM has always preferred to be in power be it PPP or PML-Q. The Other new
Force is Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP) Headed by Mustafa Kamala. The
Party consists the old stalwarts of MQM who left MQM after differences with Farooque Sattar and joined PSP. This would be the First Election for them to contest and prove their Strength.
It is estimated that GDA will grab more than 40 Seats in Sindh and
form their Government in Sindh and Democratic Transition And Prospects For PTI in GE-2018 will be recognized as an Alternate Force to PPP .
It is very difficult to break the Monopoly of PPP in Sindh yet People are hopeful that they will get rid of PPP hegemony forever and will prefer Service Delivery. If PTI forms an alliance with GDA in Sindh, With National Party in Baluchistan and
with MMA in Punjab, KPK and Baluchistan, it will easily form
Government and both PPP and PML-N will sit in opposition benches.
Despite all this , it will be very difficult to make any prediction
before General Election 2018 but as per the Social Media Surveys,
Gallup Pakistan Surveys and Media Debates, It is assumed that PTI will have the lion’s share in NA and PA Seats in KPK, Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan followed by MMA and GDA in Sindh. The sympathy vote
may play a role for PML-N as their Leader Mian Nawaz Shareef is in
Adiala jail along with his daughter as there is no any other chance for them as they were tested thrice by the People of Pakistan. PTI has brighter and stronger position to sweep the GE-2018 and Elect Imran Khan as Next PM of Pakistan Let July 25, 2018, come and decide the Future of mainstream parties i.e PTI, PPP, PML-N or MMA who will be the Next PM. Let’s Wait for Elections Results to pour in.

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